After suffering an extremely disappointing loss to Georgia Tech and grabbing a decent win at home over Miami, the Virginia Tech Hokies are sitting at 4-3 in the ACC and are in good position to finish with a conference record that contains more W's than L's. Make no mistake, this team is limited and has zero chance of a magical NCAA Final Four run, but that doesn't mean there is nothing to enjoy about this team or that there's nothing to look forward to this season. Here's a plain look at what is going on with VT basketball right now.
- Mostly due to the fact that there are no dominant mid-major teams like in recent years past (Butler, Memphis, Gonzaga, etc), there are likely to be several more at-large spots in the NCAA tournament that will go to teams from power conferences, and I'm not just talking about the 4 extra play-in game spots. And yes, that term "power conferences" somehow still includes the ACC. My gut and ESPN's Bracketology[tm] tells me that if the season were to end right now, the Hokies would be an NCAA tournament team.
- So what does that mean? Can the Hokies just keep the status quo for the rest of the season... losing games they are expected to lose while winning games they are expected to win in order to stay in the field? Not exactly. What is outside of the team's control is how all of the other teams play from here on out. VT's wins over Florida State, Penn State, and Oklahoma State look pretty good right now, but they could look a lot fuglier in a month's time if one or two of those teams start tanking.
- I'm starting to think that the best thing for Virginia Tech, besides a win at home against Duke, would be for the ACC teams that VT has beaten to win against Duke as well. Scratch that... I mean the ACC teams who are in the RPI top 100 and have lost to VT. I think it would be a bad thing if Wake Forest were to upend Duke. Duke did so well in their out-of-conference schedule that they could probably lose a few more games without feeling much of a repercussion in the RPI.
- As good as Malcolm Delaney is (and he's incredibly good), I am just now starting to realize that he's basically anti-clutch. Delaney is the one to work for a shot in just about every last possession of every game against a quality opponent when the Hokies need a win, and I have no memories of him coming through for VT. Some guys fold under pressure and some guys get better under pressure. I'm sad to say, I think Delaney falls into the first category. I have to imagine that 'Zo Hudson will be the guy to be shooting the last shot next season, and I think he'll rise to the challenge like he did a few times last season.
- If one more guy gets injured, this season is finished. Greenberg has done a great job in helping the team to limit fouls with the zone defenses, but eventually they are going to get in foul trouble and need their bench players to contribute in order to win. Manny Atkins has been contributing pretty consistently, but Eddie and Garland can't be counted on at this point and giving either of them extended minutes looks iffy right now. Then again, Erick Green became a completely different player with extended minutes... maybe the same thing would happen for Eddie or Garland.
- Garland doesn't have the handle to be a point guard at this time in his career. The guy is a turnover machine and looks extremely uncomfortable against active defenders. I have a feeling that he's always going to be an undersized shooting guard, which isn't necessarily a terrible thing if he can learn to defend point guards since Erick Green has the size to defend shooting guards. The thing I like about Garland is that the kid really looks like a natural scorer. If you let him shoot, he's going to score a lot. I just don't know if he isn't better off being the go-to guy on a team like Ball State, Lehigh, or Central Michigan.
2 comments:
Agree with your comments about Ty Garland. I liked what I saw from him earlier in the season, but he has seemed lost in league play. He’s been a huge liability whenever we’ve asked him to handle the ball. Which I find particularly disappointing, because I thought he distributed the ball pretty well in some of the early out of conference games. It will be interesting to see what happens with him in the future. Marquis Rankin comes in next year and will hopefully push for playing time right away, and one of those guys isn’t going to get a lot of minutes. With all that said, remember what a disaster Erick Green looked like at this time last year. Ty could make a huge jump next year; you never know.
Bubble-wise, I think we’re going to be right back where we were in years past. We have 5 road games left. Two should be gimmes if we are a tourney team (@UVA, @Wake). I think 3-1 is probably the best-case scenario for the remaining home games (GT, MD, Duke, BC), so to be comfortable we need to take 2 of 3 on the road against NC St, BC and Clemson. It’s a pretty daunting task, I think. 10-6 may get us in this year, but I remain unconvinced until I see it.
I agree that the Hokies are probably a bubble team yet again this season. I'm less concerned with how many wins they get, and more concerned with who they beat. If the Hokies go 8-8 in conference, but beat Duke and win their first game in the ACC tournament, they are probably okay. It all depends on how the bubble shapes up though... still a lot of basketball to be played. And for Garland, you're right at times he looks very promising. He's a guy who can score, but he's also shown to be an excellent passer on the drive. What that kid needs to do is practice dribbling drills non-stop for the next 9 months. With improved ball-handling, he could end up being a star. Rankin looks like he already has the PG skills that the team needs as the guy is an assist-machine at Hargrave, so I think it's a difficult task for Garland to get ahead of Rankin.
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