ACC Predictions

With Virginia Tech's men's college basketball season starting up 2 weeks from tomorrow, I thought I would take a look all 12 ACC teams and rank them, since that's the hip thing to do.  So let's get right to it.

1. UNC - Obviously.  Everyone in the media has the Tar Heels as the #1 team in the ACC if not the #1 team in the nation, and I am no different.  When North Carolina benched Larry Drew II last season in favor of Kendall Marshall at point guard, the whole team benefited.  Marshall shows real leadership and play-making abilities.  Add an emerging Harrison Barnes at SF, a defensive terror in PF John Henson, an all-around excellent C in Tyler Zeller, as well as a deep bench, and you have a team destined for greatness.  They are as close to a lock as there is for the Final Four.
2. Duke - There is some room for argument having Duke as the #2 team in the ACC... but not much.  They just continue to add big-time recruits year after year.  Losing your top three scorers in Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, and Kyrie Irving is tough, but the cupboard just got restocked.  Duke landed the #1 recruit in the nation in G Austin Rivers, as well as a third Plumlee brother (Marshall Plumlee, supposedly the most talented of the 3 massive Plumlees), PG Quinn Cook, and SF Michael Gbinije.  Miles Plumlee is the only senior on the team, but he's not a team leader.  The youth and inexperience of this team could be a problem, but the talent certainly is not.
3. UVA - Yep, that's right... I'm not picking Florida State here.  Blasphemous, I know.  I'll explain why I'm down on FSU in their section, but I'll explain here why I'm high on UVA.  For one, I truly believe Tony Bennett is an excellent coach and his defensive tactics will make UVA one of the best defensive teams in the ACC.  UVA's star player, PF Mike Scott, only played ten games last season before being shut down with an injury.  They were also missing starting PG Sammy Zeglinski for the first 7 games of the season, and it really showed.  This team didn't lose much to graduation (underwhelming backup forward Will Sherrill, and streaky shooter Mustapha Farrakhan at guard), but they're adding two 4-star recruits in SG Malcolm Brogdon and SF Paul Jesperson.  Look for KT Harrell and Joe Harris to build on last year's success as freshmen.  If they can stay clear of injuries at their most talented positions, they can easily finish 3rd in the ACC.
4. Virginia Tech - I know everyone is going to hate me putting UVA ahead of VT, but I am just going with my gut.  Erick Green is going to have a great year at PG.  Victor Davila will probably improve a touch this year, but for the most part he's a known factor.  The loss of Jeff Allen's rebounding does scare me... he was awesome on the boards.  However, I think Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen will be replaced by a committee of players including the returning Dorenzo Hudson and JT Thompson, as well as finally-healthy Cadarian Raines.  VT's squad is deeper than it has ever been, and you're going to see the absence of Delaney's negativity have a positive effect on certain members of the team.  Also, this is the best recruiting class that Coach Greenberg has ever had, and "Doe Doe" Finney-Smith is the best recruit Greenberg has ever landed.  Optimism abounds.
5. Florida State - Yes, they are absolutely loaded in the frontcourt, and that's before adding ESPN top 100 SF Antwan Space into the mix.  They have solid shooting guards in Michael Snaer and Ian Miller.  But they don't have the most important piece of the pie... a good point guard.  It is very rare to see a team succeed in the ACC without a good point guard.  The loss of NBA-bound Chris Singleton is big, but FSU has players that can mostly replace what he brought to the table (by committee of course).  You can't say that about the loss of Derwin Kitchen at PG.  Luke Loucks was terrible as the backup PG last year and Arkansas transfer Jeff Peterson doesn't look to be any better.  Besides Kitchen, no player on FSU had an assist-to-turnover ratio over 1.375 last season.  That is lousy... this team is going to turn the ball over a lot, and that's going to lead to easy baskets in transition.
6. Miami - I have no idea what to expect from the 'Canes.  They have two fantastic guards in Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant.  They have one of the best centers in the ACC in Reggie Johnson.  Miami didn't lose much from last season, just F Adrian Thomas.  They have solid wing players in Garrius Adams and DeQuan Jones.  However, they have a new coach in Jim Larranaga and only one recruit, 3-star SG Bishop Daniels.  Also Jones could be in big trouble for supposedly accepting a $10,000 bribe to play at Miami... just depends on how long the NCAA takes with this crazy Nevin Shapiro case.  The backcourt alone makes you want to put this team higher than 6th place though... I guess we'll see.
7. Clemson - I could see this team being better than I'm predicting, but also worse so this spot seems about right.  The diminutive point guard Andre Young is an excellent shooter and ball-handler.  The frontcourt is imposing with Devin Booker, Milton Jennings, Bryan Narcisse, and 4-star recruit Bernard Sullivan.  G/F Tanner Smith is also a nice starting player.  The depth at guard and small forward is a real concern though.  Coach Brad Brownell brought in a bunch of 3-star recruits in a year where he has some serious minutes to dish out to freshmen... I can definitely see that being a problem if Young or Smith goes down with an injury.
8. NC State - Sidney Lowe is finally gone, which is great for Wolfpack fans, but the coaching change also resulted in talented PG Ryan Harrow moving on to a new home in Kentucky, so this team is left without a lot of options at the point.  NC State has talented wing players in CJ Leslie, Scott Wood, Lorenzo Brown, and CJ Williams.  They have a decent frontcourt with Richard Howell, DeShawn Painter, and 4-star PF recruit Tyler Harris.  But the lack of overall depth and the severe questions at PG will probably doom this team.  Strange move by Harrow... he will go from a situation where he was possibly going to be the star of a decent team to a situation where he has to sit out a year and likely won't be the starting point guard when he comes back.  I wouldn't trust John Calipari not to bring in a big-time recruit at PG for 2012, and personally, I don't think it's a given that Marquis Teague will be good enough or have the body to go straight to the NBA after 1 year.
9. Georgia Tech - Can I really put this team above Maryland?  You'll see why in their section.  As for Georgia Tech, this team lost a lot of their best contributors from last year.  Star point guard Iman Shumpert is gone to the NBA, backup point guard Mo Miller is also gone, and so is sharp-shooter Brian Oliver.  Backup forward Lance Storrs is gone too.  Coming in is only one recruit, but he's a good one in ESPN top 100 power forward Julian Royal.  Also, any coach other than Paul Hewitt can only be a good thing for this team.  They return a capable PG in Mfon Udofia, a blossoming G/F in Glen Rice Jr, and sophomore 2nd-year starters Daniel Miller and Kammeon Holsey in the post.  I imagine Jason Morris will round out the starting group, and he got good experience last year.  There isn't much depth to this team, but the starters are capable.
10. Maryland - Another coaching change... this one was due to Gary Williams' retirement though.  Maryland boasts talented freshman SG Nick Faust and their star player is likely to be PG Terrell Stoglin who really came onto the scene strong in his first season.  Guard Pe'Shon Howard is also talented, but he's going to miss at least the first 2 months of the season with a broken foot.  Guard Adrian Bowie gave big minutes last year, but is now gone.  They still have senior G/F Sean Mosley (man, he seems like he's been around forever), who never seems to take that next step towards stardom.  The frontcourt is a bit of a mess with beastly center Jordan Williams leaving early for the NBA.  Also, forwards Dino Gregory and Cliff Tucker are gone.  James Padgett looks like he can handle the pressure, but who else will rebound the ball and guard the hoop?  This team is going through transition and might finish lower than 10th, but almost certainly no higher than 9th.
11. Wake Forest - This team should be a good bit better than last season, but that's not saying much... they were one of the all-time worst ACC teams in the history of the conference last year, at least according to RPI.  Forward Travis McKie will be awesome this year, and Guard CJ Harris should perform very well, but the loss of guard JT Terrell (he was arrested and cut loose) and only a couple of 3-star recruits coming in basically spells doom for this team.  I can't imagine them beating too many teams in the ACC, but they should win a few more out-of-conference games.
12. Boston College - A massive exodus of talent has left this team in shambles.  Electric guard Reggie Jackson is gone, as are PF Joe Trapani, SF Corey Raji, G Biko Paris, and C Josh Southern.  In other words, all five starters from last year are gone.  Hokie killer Dallas Elmore has also flown the coop.  Role players John Cahill and Cortney Dunn... also gone.  It's a major overhaul this season and Steve Donahue will be asking a LOT of two sophomores, G Gabriel Moton and G/F Danny Rubin, as well as 4-star freshman PF Ryan Anderson.  The rest of the team will be a bunch of 3-star and 2-star freshman recruits along with some less-than-notable transfer players.  This team could end up rivaling the terribleness of least year's Wake Forest team.  Syracuse and Pittsburgh, hurry up and give our conference some credibility again!