2009-2010 Basketball Preview

WOOO-HOOO! I know it's considered pure blasphemy at Virginia Tech, but as many of you know, my true passion is Hokie Hoops with a modest edge over Hokie Football. Well with the season beginning in two weeks (November 15 against Brown), I thought I would throw some crap down in blog form and call it a season preview. GLHF (that's gamer talk for Good Luck Have Fun... I am not a gamer, although I aspire to be one day).

I'm excited for this season, as I have been the last several seasons, although it's probably because I have a tendency to see the good and neglect the bad. First off, if you look at the quality of our recruits last year to this year to next year to even the year after... the quality of the recruits is getting better and better. We have top-100 recruits in the coming years, which never used to happen, and I think a lot of it is because of the new practice facility that we've been hearing Seth Greenberg talk about for over a year now (it was finally finished in the offseason). Our incoming freshman class this year isn't eye-popping, but it's solid. Erick Green will play backup point guard from the start of the season and should be the best one to watch. Manny Atkins could see some playing time as a pure-scorer. He can hit the long-range jumper and he can slash to the basket, and he can rebound in traffic. Then again, Dorenzo Hudson was described the same way coming out of high school and has turned more into a defender, although his scoring improved late in the season. It is easier to predict Green as an ACC-caliber player than Atkins, although they might both be great when all is said and done. Ben Boggs missed most of his senior season with an injury, but he is back at full speed and Greenberg likes him to be a lock-down defender (probably not much of a scorer). And finally, we have a banger in Cadarian Raines. He doesn't have much in the offensive arsenal, but he's active, can jump out of the gym, rebounds and blocks shots. He's Cheick Diakite except with much better hands. Raines' negatives are that he is starting the season injured and needs to add more muscle to his frame. He also needs to develop some post moves, but there's a lot to like about him.

So, I guess my lead-in is why I'm not writing for a real publication instead of my tiny blog... I led with our freshman recruits rather than our returning players. Whoops. We return one of the best scorers in the ACC and a predicted first-team All-ACC point guard in Malcolm Delaney. Delaney scored about 18 points per game last season, but a lot of those points were from free throws late in the game when the other team was fouling to catch up. He scores well both from the 3-point line, going to the rim, or pulling up for a jumper. He just got way too tired-out last season and the wear and tear caught up with him, which is why Greenberg will need to lean heavily on Erick Green to learn the offense and defense quickly. Green will see plenty of minutes against Brown. We may see some point guard play from Dorenzo Hudson as well... Greenberg challenged him to play as much point in pickup games as possible during the offseason, and to focus on his dribbling. Either way though, Hudson would probably be our emergency point guard at best.

Also returning to the team is "The Big Donut", Jeff Allen. The name seemed apt when Allen was a freshman because of his rotund physique and the fact that he wore the number zero. The nickname grew significantly less funny last season as Allen shed about 30 lbs in the previous offseason. However, this past summer Allen was told to put that weight back on again, but with a good portion of that weight being muscle. This may sound strange because you are probably thinking, "The coaches wanted Jeff to get FATTER?" Well... yeah. Allen's per-minute numbers were better as a freshman than they were as a sophomore. A lot of the reason for that is because Allen's previous excess of weight is what allowed him to move bodies around in the low-post. Carrying that weight tired him out quickly, and the coaches saw that and asked him to lose the weight. Well, last season we saw Jeff get pushed around easier down low despite adding a little muscle and losing a ton of weight. The coaches then decided to put Allen on a regimen that would increase his weight, but do so at a safe pace that increased muscle mass as well. Allen is supposedly up to 255 lbs and is moving well and staying in shape, which I think will have big benefits for him this season. I am predicting that he averages a double-double, with at least 14 points per game and 10 rebounds per game. His low post moves are already fantastic... I don't think I'm being a homer when I say he has the best low-post moves in the ACC. But, I guess this all depends on whether he can keep himself from getting in foul trouble.

So we have 2 definite starters and then 3 guys who are likely to start. Those guys would be Dorenzo Hudson, JT Thompson, and Victor Davila. Their presence in the starting lineup will depend largely on whether they commit to defense. Greenberg was not at all happy about our team's spike in defensive ineptitude last season, and he wants to get back to the defense-first mindset that won us so many games with such lesser talent from 2004-2005 through 2006-2007. My gut tells me that it is going to happen. With a junior-laden roster and a coach who knows how to drill defensively, I see an improvement in that area this year. However, I also see a slight drop offensively. That can't be helped... we lost a big-time and clutch scorer in AD Vassallo.

Otherwise, our roster has some guys who might be able to step in and contribute. Terrell Bell shows signs of athleticism from time to time. Lewis Witcher may finally be able to put it all together for his senior season. Heck, Gene Swindle even has a chance to get in the mix... but I am mostly expecting the usual suspects to contribute.

Overall though, I like the Hokies' chances for success this season for several reasons:

1) We are being picked to finish in the bottom half of the league by everybody and their grandmother. In the past this has fired our team up and given them good motivation.

2) Our team is as experienced/seasoned as any other team in the ACC

3) We have a favorable schedule (although it might be a little light on big name opponents... could either help or hurt depending on if we win the games we should win and also win a few that we shouldn't)

4) And finally, I think the biggest reason is because the ACC is down this year. I mean think about it... most of the star players are gone. Just look at these player losses:

UNC - Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green
Duke - Gerald Henderson, “Teabag” Paulus, and Eliot Williams
FSU - Toney Douglas, Uche Echefu
Miami - Jack McClinton
Wake - James Johnson, Jeff Teague
NC State - Brandon Costner, Ben McCauley, Courtney Fells
Clemson - Terrence Oglesby, KC Rivers
BC - Tyrese Rice
GT - leading scorer Lewis Clinch (not exactly a star, but you know), Alade Aminu

Almost every one of those guys is a gigantic loss... not just a small one. So I know that losing AD Vassallo is huge, but so are these losses for the other teams. The ACC is young and inexperienced this year, which could open things up for teams like VT or even (gasp) UVA, who lost arguably their worst player from last year and that's it (addition by subtraction... also works for their coach Dave Leitao being fired and bringing in proven winner Tony Bennett). Maryland should also be competitive having only lost Dave Neal, a good shooter but poor rebounder/defender as a center. Guys, this conference is wide open this year... Delaney and Allen could have a field day.

And so with that, I will give you my prediction for this season. I am predicting a 4th place finish in the ACC and a trip to the NCAA tournament. We have been on the edge for years and I think this is the year that we finally put it together. This is an extremely attainable goal for the Hokies. In truth, it's possible our team could win the ACC this year, but I am not going to claim anything so outlandish. I really think we get a bye in the first round of the ACC tourney this season assuming there are no more major injuries. An injury to Malcolm Delaney would cause a complete 180 degree turn and would put us at 10th or 11th in the ACC. Maybe even 12th, although NC State would put up a major fight for that spot.

GO HOKIES!