Basketball Update

Woah, it's been a while since my last blog post! Several things have happened since I last talked about the Virginia Tech men's basketball team. The Hokies have gone 2-1 against their last 3 ACC opponents, and had a real shot at going 3-0 with a late loss to North Carolina in Chapel Hill. There's been a lot said about that game, and despite the awful calls from that referee crew and the perceived cronyism between Tyler Zeller and an official after a brutally bad blocking call on Jeff Allen, the real reason for the loss was all of the cramping that was happening with VT's players. When you only have 8 players, it's definitely going to hurt you if 3 of them are having cramps during the game. Unfortunately, the NCAA tournament selection committee does not use "cramping" as a reason to view a loss as a win, so the Hokies will have to continue to battle with their emaciated roster. Here are some quick hits regarding the team:

• The win over Florida State at home was a good one for VT. FSU has been playing beneath their talent so far this season, or at least they were right up until their meeting with Duke in Talahassee last week. The Seminoles played tough defense on Duke, particularly Chris Singleton on Kyle Singler. Almost all of Singler's points came when Singleton was on the bench with foul trouble... if you were to argue that Chris Singleton is the best defender in college hoops right now, I would not have any problem with that statement. The other factor for Florida State against Duke was senior guard Derwin Kitchen. Kitchen is not really known for being a prolific scorer, but he has had a quietly solid season scoring the ball for the Seminoles. He shoots 50.8% from the field and averages 10.8 points per game (the combination of the two is almost unheard of for a guard... you rarely see a guard put up over 10 points per game with a field goal percentage that high). Kitchen is also a decent foul shooter at 78.3% and a decent 3-point shooter at 35.7%, although I don't think he shoots a lot of threes. He is also a fantastic defender, so Duke's guards really had their hands full on both ends. At any rate, I think that FSU may finally start to right the ship now, and if they do, that win could turn out to be a quality win for VT.
• With that said, I am trying hard not to get my hopes up this season. Virginia Tech has been playing really good basketball over the last month or so, but can they really challenge for a spot in the NCAA tournament this season like they were supposed to? You know, before the injury bug bit us and laid eggs in us? I think the answer is unfortunately, no. With only 8 players in the rotation, and with only two of those players being true post players, it's tough to imagine that VT will be able to compete consistently enough with ACC-caliber opponents. The one team that would go the farthest as a win for VT would obviously be Duke, which VT plays at home on February 26. This is the only meeting between the two teams this season. Tech will be facing a Duke squad that routinely plays 9 players, and they have 10 solid players if Kyrie Irving can get healthy. Of those ten players, 4 are true post players going 6'8", 6'10", 6'10", and 6'11". VT's two post players are 6'8" Victor Davila and 6'7" Jeff Allen. The size disparity will ultimately lead to a lot of offensive rebounds for Duke, and when you couple that with the high intensity that Duke always plays on defense, I just see them wearing the Hokies down eventually rolling over them. Without a win against Duke, the Hokies will be sitting squarely on the bubble yet again (assuming they are somehow able to go 8-8 or better in the ACC). It's a tall order.
• I know it's looking ahead a long ways, but I'd like to see VT use predominantly man-to-man defense against Duke and mix it up with some of the 1-3-1 trapping zone. If the Hokies attempt to use a lot of 2-3 zone against Duke, they're going to get burned. Duke is an excellent 3-point shooting team and their guards love to drive the lane and kick to open shooters. That's exactly the kind of offense that beats a 2-3 zone. Man-to-Man makes the most sense. Davila will be defending purely in the post against the Plumlee brothers, and he doesn't really have to worry about them shooting from the outside, which is well within Davila's comfort zone. Allen has the potential to be destroyed by Mason Plumlee, as he has very good offensive moves in the post and does a good job of battling for position, and Allen is defensively susceptible to players like that. I'd rather see Allen on Miles Plumlee, who isn't as good of an offensive player. Davila and Allen are also comfortable hedging high screens, so I don't see the Dukies burning the Hokies too bad there as long as the guards go high around the screen to try to cut out the 3-point shot. Assuming Kyrie Irving is still out, I think Nolan Smith versus Erick Green should be a very good match. Green is a superb defender and does a great job of cutting off the dribble-drive, and Smith's game is primarily the dribble-drive and shooting threes. Duke uses a lot of 3-guard sets with 6-4" Andre Dawkins playing along with 6'2" Seth Curry and 6'2" Nolan Smith... size advantage has to go to VT there. Duke can also "go big" with Smith, Curry/Dawkins, Kyle Singler, Ryan Kelly/Miles Plumlee, and Mason Plumlee. This lineup would also have it's advantages for VT as you would see Terrell Bell guarding Singler, rather than Jeff Allen.
• Okay, I need to stop meandering. That game is still over a month away, and there's plenty of basketball to play between now and then. I think the thing that has been most encouraging is the emergence in the play of sophomore forward Manny Atkins, and freshman forward Jarell Eddie. After a (very) briefly nice start, Eddie was really looking like a freshman for most of this season. He was being intimidated by the opposition and failed to understand the level of activity required to play ACC-level basketball. The confidence is starting to come. After shooting 2/19 from the 3-point line, Eddie made 2/3 attempts in his last game and contributed 18 points in his last 2 games. Eddie definitely looks like a player with a smooth shooting stroke and the ability to rebound the ball, so confidence is the only thing keeping him from setting the ACC on fire. On the other hand, you have another VT player starting to emerge in Manny Atkins who is brimming with confidence. He just needed the opportunity to take some shots. Atkins is getting that opportunity as the Hokies are sharing the ball more than ever on offense. Malcolm Delaney is sacrificing shots for assists when the game calls for him to do so, and it's working out to Manny's advantage. Atkins hit 5-7 shots from the 3-point line in his last 2 games. His shot is a little more unorthodox than Eddie's, but it works very well for shooting jump shots. He has a quick release that he keeps high and in front of his body, which seems to confuse defenders as they go to block the ball. If you have ever seen the Celtics' Ray Allen shoot a jumper, it's somewhat similar in form, although Manny takes more time loading up the shot than Ray-Ray. Both guys are scrappy and can grab rebounds in traffic. Both guys are becoming better defenders (especially Atkins), and Eddie can handle the ball in space a little bit, so you can use him at the 2, 3, or 4.
• It's tough to talk about the improvement from those two guys without looking ahead to next season. VT returns a lot of talent, and also adds a lot of talent. Seniors like Dorenzo Hudson and JT Thompson were originally slated to be moving on after this season, but will return next season instead. I'd imagine Hudson will keep his starting spot at shooting guard, although I would be surprised if JT Thompson wasn't coming off the bench again. A projected starting lineup for Virginia Tech (if they are all healthy) would be PG Erick Green, SG Dorenzo Hudson, SF Jarell Eddie (although I wouldn't be surprised to see either Atkins or stud recruit Dorian Finney-Smith contend for this spot), PF Allan Chaney, and C Victor Davila. That leaves a bench of PG/SG Tyrone Garland, SF Manny Atkins, PF JT Thompson, C Cadarian Raines, and our 4 stellar recruits, SF Dorian Finney-Smith, PF CJ Barksdale, SG Robert Brown, and PG Marquis Rankin. I am known to put higher expectations on the Hokies than should be expected, but I have a hard time seeing how that group of guys wouldn't dominate. Of course, that all changes when Raines' foot starts to act up again, Allen Chaney's heart keeps him from playing, one of the freshmen transfers due to lack of playing time, and another random Hokie goes down with a season-ending injury. Ahhhhh, now that's more like it! That's a VT basketball team that I'm more familiar with. Maybe I just need to go back to focusing on this season and hoping for the best.