I was taking a look at tomorrow's game against Maryland, and I just can't figure out who I expect to win this game. If you look at the stats sheet, it seems like Maryland is completely reliant on their 6'10" center, Jordan Williams. The guy is averaging a double-double with 18.1 points and 12.2 rebounds per game. He's an absolute terror on the offensive glass, averaging 4 offensive rebounds per game. So even though Victor Davila has improved defensively to the point where you can see he's a very good low post defender, Davila is not a good rebounder for his size and is likely to lose that battle to Jordan Williams several times in this game. So you are probably thinking to yourself, "Well you should just go hard at Williams and see if you can get him in foul trouble!" That's an extremely difficult task. The guy only averages 2.2 fouls per game. That stat is completely absurd for a center who averages 31.2 minutes on the floor per game. Maryland is very good at spreading around their fouls, so you have to expect that none of their players are likely to be in foul trouble during this game. Couple Williams' dominance in the post with the fact that Maryland will be gunning hard for a win at home to avoid going 1-3 in ACC play, and you have a likely loss for the Hokies.
However, there are some reasons for optimism as well. Tech will likely mix up their defenses playing a lot of 2-3 zone with a little bit of 1-3-1 trap and man-to-man mixed in to keep Maryland guessing. Why play mostly 2-3 zone? For one, VT will want to keep their big men from getting in foul trouble, and the 2-3 zone collapses quickly on interior players, forcing them to pass back out (although often to an open shooter). This could work to the Hokies' advantage since Maryland is a crappy 3-point shooting team. If they are bombing jump shots, they are playing right into the Hokies' hands. I could also see the 1-3-1 trap being successful against Maryland because the don't seem to have a true point guard. Adrian Bowie is more of a combo-guard and Sean Mosley is also a fairly poor ball-handler. I could see a high pressure 1-3-1 trap leading to several turnovers for the Terps. If VT had more depth in the post (i.e. more fouls to spare), I would want to see them play man-to-man in this game. I like how our guys match up defensively man-for-man with the Terrapins... it seems like our best on-ball defenders would be guarding Maryland's best offensive players, and our best help defender (Jeff Allen) would be free to roam around the paint a little bit.
Offensively, I think Delaney is going to come to play tomorrow. He grew up in nearby Baltimore and will want to show up Maryland for not bothering to recruit him. I would think that Erick Green could be in line for a big game if Maryland plays man-to-man. He'll likely be guarded by freshmen Terrell Stoglin and Pe'Shon Howard most of the game, both of whom are shorter than Green. If Jeff Allen stays focused in this game and doesn't let Maryland's classless fans get to him, he could also be in line for a high scoring game.
In the end, even though I usually like to match player against player in order to determine who will have a big game, that's rarely how it works out. Defense is a much more team-oriented thing, so you have to look at how Maryland plays team defense in order to determine who will have a big game, and honestly I don't know if Maryland plays more man-to-man or more zone. My best guess is man-to-man, so I would assume our most likely scorers will be Delaney and Green (created by pick and roll situations). Jeff Allen will have a hard time scoring points in the post against Dino Gregory, but if his mid-range jump shot is falling, then he can be effective. I think there's also a chance for a shooter like Manny Atkins to put up some points as defenders come to help on Delaney.
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