You might think I was kidding with the title of this post, but I am 100% "on the real". Virginia Tech has been absolutely awful against NC State in basketball since we joined the ACC. We are 1-6, with a losing streak of six games in a row. Our average loss is by 13 points, and our one win came by just one point. VT has a better record against both Duke and UNC since we came into the ACC, and that's really pathetic considering the talented players on both of those teams compared to the underachieving players on NC State (we are 2-5 against Duke and 2-4 against UNC since joining the ACC). Well, you may have thought that I was just going to drone on about how we're going to lose again this year, but you'd be sorely mistaken. On the contrary, I think this season we are going to turn our luck around against the Wolfpack, and my biggest reason for thinking that is how well we match up against NC State defensively.
State's best player is #33 Brandon Costner. He plays power forward for the 'pack and puts up a decent 15 points and and 6.4 rebounds per game. He's also gathered more assists per game than NC State's point guard, which means he is fairly adept at finding the open man if he doesn't have a shot. But in actuality, the Wolfpack's center, #34 Ben McCauley, is more widely known for being State's best passing big man. The whole offense runs through McCauley, who will either work for a shot down low, or he'll kick it out to an open shooter if VT tries to double-team him. He is also pretty dangerous both offensively and on the boards, averaging 12.9 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. State's most dangerous guard is #4 Courtney Fells, who is as much of a hot/cold player as anyone in the country. If he's shooting lights out in Blacksburg, this is a game the Hokies won't win unless Vassallo can match him shot-for-shot. He averages 11.8 points and is State's deadliest 3-point shooter hitting them at a 41.1% clip. The rest of NC State's squad is fairly mediocre. Tracy Smith has been playing well during the ACC slate and whoever is guarding him will have to out-hustle him to keep him from having a good game. He is basically a poor man's Al-Farouq Aminu in that he won't even attempt a 3-point shot, but is really active down low and cutting to the basket. Actually, if I had to pick a player who I think will hurt the Hokies on Sunday, I think it's going to be Smith. VT seems to do an excellent job of shutting down the best players of opposing teams only to let other players rise to the occassion (see Miami/Asbury, Wisconsin/Leuer, UVA/Farrakhan, etc). But like I said before, I think VT matches up very well defensively against NC State. Jeff Allen can handle Brandon Costner, Cheick Diakite will give McCauley some serious problems, and I think the combination of JT Thompson and Terrell Bell can bottle up Courtney Fells. The only question is, will Vassallo be able to contain Tracy Smith and Trevor Ferguson? I sure hope so. I have no doubt that Malcolm Delaney and Hank Thorns will have a field day against Farnold Degand and Julius Mays. I am betting on at least 4 steals from those two Hokies. However, both Degand and Mays are pretty tall for point guards (6'3" and 6'2"), so we might not see much of Hank Thorns in this game. He would be more likely to come in to play when Javier Gonzalez is on the floor, except that Gonzalez's minutes are being eaten up by Mays these days (go rhyming!). Also helping the Hokies' chances at a win is the fact that I don't think NC State has anyone who can guard Malcolm Delaney. I expect Delaney to score around 25 points in the game, with Vassallo not far behind. Points are going to be hard to come by for Jeff Allen because McCauley and Costner are both solid defenders, but the rebounding opportunities will certainly be there. State turns the ball over a lot, which is by far the biggest reason that they aren't winning games, so VT needs to win the turnover margin to have a shot at winning this game. In our lone matchup against the 'pack last year, the Hokies were done in by some extremely hot shooting from NC State. I remember the game pretty well actually... at least 3 different players hit ridiculous turn-around jumpers (Costner and Fells from 3, and McCauley with a long fall-away 2 if memory serves me right) that they will never hit again in their life. We were hurt a lot by J.J. Hickson, who has moved on to play with the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA. We were also bothered by Gavin Grant, who always seemed to play his best games against VT while he was playing for NC State, but Grant has graduated and is no longer playing with the Wolfpack. This is our year, Hokie fans! It's time to put an end to this two-game losing streak and pick up a win that we are EXPECTED to get, and what better place to do it than at home in the Cassell? Someone other than the Big 3 really needs to step up in this game because it's time to get this wolf-monkey off of our back. As of right now, I don't think this game is on TV in Richmond (because I couldn't find it on the schedule), but if possible everyone should watch this game! I guarantee it'll be a harder win than it's supposed to be, but I think the "W" will happen. 1:30pm on Sunday, be there. And root hard against coach Sidney Lowe and his ridiculous red jacket (which seems to own only Seth Greenberg and no one else). Go Hokies!
2 comments:
Good call on the turnover prediction. It's the main reason Tech won. Delany didn't score well, although he was 11 for 11 from the line.
The fact that Costner now plays the 3 for NCST helped Tech also, because he had to match up with AD on both ends, and Vassallo could take him off the dribble all day.
A win is a win, but that was a long stretch of bad ball for VT. The should have owned NCST on the defensive end and gotten more close shots / free throw attempts on the other end.
We got the game in Hampton Roads, do you end up finding it Richmond?
Gary, good call on the Vassallo/Costner matchup. If you had told me before the game that Vassallo would be guarding Costner for most of the game and that Vassallo would do an excellent job containing him, I would have laughed in your face and probably doubted your intelligence, but dang... that's exactly how it played out.
I did end up watching the game... CBS moved their PGA schedule back and made some room for the game. What is weird though is that the commentators' microphones couldn't be heard when the game was being broadcast in HD, so I watched most of the game in utter silence. It was really odd, and seemed so much less exciting. They eventually changed to low def in the final 10 minutes or so of the second half and you could hear the commentators... just in time for a Hokie rally!
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